PM MODIJI – TRULY, THE NATION’S TRUSTEE

Honorable PM Modiji announced the toughest economical decision today of extending the existing and medically much needed LOCKDOWN. He stood by his words, he had said in his speech before announcing the LOCKDOWN 1.0 for 21 days.

As mentioned in my previous article, the decision was of course not easy. The nation’s economy has come to a standstill due to the LOCKDOWN. But in the absence of guaranteed cure/ remedy against this deadly virus of COVID-19, this is the only best defensive strategy available in the world, to any nation. The cost is exorbitant in the form of risking growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to be negative. (GDP is the measure of NATIONAL INCOME). I’m sure Mr. Modi administration would have thought of extending LOCKDOWN well in advance, but had he taken the decision single handedly and announced, I’m sure many segments of the population and opposition leaders would have criticized him for the economic trouble we are faced in time to come. Therefore, he ensured all the respective State CMs a re consulted, trusted and participated in his decision of extending LOCKDOWN.

PM Modiji, has not just extended the LOCKDOWN, however also ensured that the Nation is coming out stronger to fight against the virus and the troubles caused by it. He wants to cover the nation, by doing as much TESTING as possible. Yes, I’m saying as much as possible, because the population of this nation is approx. 135 Crores (1.35 bn)!!!. He is bringing in Statistician’s and Scientists to play to fight against this trouble.

The plan I have come across so far is that the Nation would be divided into three Zones.
Green Zone – Safe – Where not a single Corona Virus patient has been found
Orange Zone – Possible Threat – Where very few Corona Patients have been found
Red Zone – HOT SPOT – Where significant No. of Corona Patients have been found
The division of the zones as above would help the nation to steer calculative exit out of this Lockdown. Further, this division would assist the government in taking decision of extensiveness of the TESTING required in respective zones. Further, INDIA has also released the mobile app called “Aarogya Setu” under the leadership of PM Modi. By using this application, government could remain updated about the possible threats in any area of the country.

I must admit that, although there is NO FOOL PROOF plan to fight in this WAR against this VIRUS, please tell me which WAR does guarantee 100% victory. And in this WAR, the mankind has also been challenged against the TIME. It is good to come out of this WAR asap, because no nation can afford to involve it’s entire population in this war for long time with the dire economic consequence. The UN has already declared as one of the toughest economic phase post 1930 depression.

And yes, no leader should rule out the possibility of the SECOND WAVE of THIS PANDEMIC!!! If any nation gets hit by the SECOND WAVE, before any DRUG or VACCINE being developed, it will be considered as a failure of the LEADERSHIP!!! Breach of trust of the Voters and the People!!!

COVID-19 IN INDIA

Recently it was in the NEWS that WHO has appreciated Indian Prime Minister Modiji for the COVID-19 management in India for the Lockdown implemented and keeping the number of infected cases low.

Another 4 days to end this 21 days lockdown and the Government Bodies in India (be it State and the Central Government) have just started to accumulate Test Kits and about to begin Random Rapid Tests in 2-3 days. In the Union Territory of Delhi, it has begun since last 2 days. I guess this reason itself explains why the no of cases reported by India on the International platform could be less? Further, there are rumors that people who were showing COVID-19 symptoms and approached governmental healthcare system, were denied immediate admission saying they should contact Private Hospitals. This is another reason why the number of reported cases could be less?

If the weather condition considered to have acted in the favor of Indian Citizens by not getting this disease being spread, with the arrival of Monsoon, the  situation may change and with the moisture in the air the chances of this Virus to remain active outside are more? CNBC TV18 has already announced that the Indian Peninsula should expect Monsoon to arrive by 31^st of May.

Yes, I understand the Government is challenged by the loss of momentum in the economy, however the same challenge is being faced by even the advanced Nations in the world. The question comes to my mind is, if the India as a nation does not even have enough supplies and resources to provide basic necessities to the people for minimum 3 months? There is no doubt that the weaknesses in the Indian Economy has been exposed and would be exposed further if the Lockdown to continue for another 2-3 weeks.

Finally, even the credibility of the WHO is in question based on the recent remarks made by  Mr. Donald Trump.  I doubt, if the WHO had even considered the proportion of TESTING being done in India before even praising our beloved PM or is it that such comments might have prevented the Government of India to act promptly on further steps, such as Testing.

I trust Modiji for the apt and best decision in the interest of my Nation. And I’m at bit ease to see him leading this nation, with the tremendous potential for growth.

Of course, the decisions taken now in this tough time would matter to a great extent in the next election, not just to Mr. Modi but also to Mr. Donald Trump. With the US elections lined up by the end of 2020, there is no doubt that Mr. Trump is in a hurry to revive the economy to turn the chances against.

Is it actually happening? Would the USA, INDIA and the UK form a Free Trade Agreement and the Economic Union?

I had written and suggested this thought in my book written in 2015 called “STOP OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING”  to harness the synergy created by forming the union of two superpower nations viz. the USA and the UK and the fastest developing economy with a huge customer base - speaking English language.

I just heard on CNBC TV18 that the US is thinking of entering into FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with India. With the UK exiting from EU, most likely UK would also join this FTA?

Heard Mr. Timothy Roemer - Ex-US Ambassador to India - speaking on "CNBC TV18" (India).

The book was published on: https://bookswewant.blogspot.com/

I will create a fresh link to download this book and provide on this blog shortly.

FIFA 2018 : Couple of suggestions to make the game of FOOTBALL more fair, competitive and exciting!!!

I thought of writing after a long time again and to get connected to the world of readers. With the ongoing FIFA world cup, thought it would be better if I could write something about the game of Football, in a way if I could suggest something to make this game more entertaining.

Recommendation 1:

Usually it has been noticed that a team after scoring a leading goal, try to kill the excitement in the game, especially in the second half by doing back passes to the goalkeeper.  To keep the game alive and competitive in such situations, FIFA may start a rule, thereby an opponent player may be allowed stand near the goalkeeper to ensure no back-pass to the goalkeeper by foot. He would not be active unless, the ball crosses him or opponents pass any ball to the goalkeeper by foot (which would be less likely after implementing this rule). Of course, I believe this rule can be improvised further by the expert minds.

Recommendation 2:

The current VAR implemented by FIFA has undoubtedly a good use of technology. However, it seems that it still has flaws which could deny justice to the player and the team against whom the foul has been committed. For example, like yesterday (for people who witnessed England V/S Tunisia match) England could have been awarded 2 penalties for 2 fouls committed by Tunisian players in their Box. In such events the game could become more competitive if that particular player or the captain of that team could appeal to the ref on the field to check the reply and take the final decision. Such Appeal could be restricted to 1 appeal per match per team. In case of valid appeal, the team appealing would retain one more chance to appeal. If the appeal is invalid, the team may just lose a chance to appeal again. Of course while implementing this rule, FIFA can continue with the existing set up whereby refs are communicating for the possible fraud being missed or inappropriately awarded.

I only wish that, the most loved game on the planet to be more fair, competitive, exciting and alive till the last whistle. Please let me know your comments and feedback on this topic or the write-up.

Thank you!

The NPA Resolution!!! A Big Sham Against The Nation, The Taxpayers and Especially The Farmers?

What is the NPA resolution?
The government of India has amended the RBI Act, to give RBI the power to direct banks to take action against the loan defaulters under the code called Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). According to amendment the lending banks approach the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) to appoint a professional to manage a defaulting company despite the existing board has been suspended. The professional has to find out a solution within 180 days to repay bank loans. If the professional is not able to find a solution within 180 days, the process timeline would get extended by another 90 days. If a solution could not be found within max 270 days, the company would go into liquidation.   

The total bad debts in the Indian Banking System identified and reported so far are worth
                                              Rs.7.11 LAKH CRORES!!!
One cannot imagine the amount of loans not yet identified or for that matter reported as NPAs. Given the history of corrupt and unscrupulous bankers, one should not rule out this possibility and should always be cautions with the numbers which are published. To add more fuel to this fire it has been reported that number of NPAs with every passing day is going higher and higher, worsening the situation with every passing day. The government has already delayed more than 2 years to come out with any sort of solution to put this mess in the grave. Meanwhile, during the past two years the Government has already infused Rs. 50,000/- crores; as a part of the capitalization program? Whose money it is, I ask. Does the government earn any money? NO!!!! Then on what basis the Government of India has decided to save these brat bankers. The government has promised Rs. 70,000/- crores in total to the Indian Banks , that means another Rs. 20,000/- crores will be deployed by the end of 2018-19. Although the number Rs. 70,000/- crores looks less in comparison to Rs. 7.11 lakh crores, one must remember that the Banking system has the ability to create or generate an investment of minimum 10 times with the deposit what they receive, because of reserve ratios – lending ability – and withdrawals (demand on the deposits). May be the government’s attempt was to create this sort of huge investments and value in the economy with the infusion of Rs. 70,000/- crores has clearly been failed? Instead of value being created, what this system has created is more NPAs. What should have acted as a medicine has became a poison in this slowing down economy. It is an another indication of the economy being slowed down and so is the demand for credit. The defaults on credit are on the high and rising. (you may read my article: about the http://gappaa.blogspot.in/2017/06/is-india-heading-into-recession-growth.html  published on 08^th of June).

Before the failure could become obvious to everyone, probably it is wise to trigger the so called NPA resolution and give it a popularity through the media.

Also there are some loopholes and if-then situations in this resolution process. Although, the maximum of 270 days deadline has been set for this resolution process before the company goes into liquidation, a promoter of the company has a right to move the High Court on various grounds, delaying the process to find resolution or liquidation. Another possibility is how many of those professional appointed by the NCLT would be able to understand the business of the company in the time period of 270 days to come out with the workable, making liquidation more certain, but only further delayed process. Even if one finds the resolution

The Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley had announced capital infusion of Rs. 10,000/- crores for the current financial year in line with the Indradhanush scheme. I wonder why such Indradhanush does not shine for the Farmers of India? Why only for the irresponsible Bankers and the Industrialists?

When the topic of Farmers’ loan waivers was hot in media, a famous Banker said waiving of Farmers’ loan would encourage indiscipline in farmers. So does it mean discipline has to be followed by the Farmers and the poor and middle class people in the society? What about Bankers and the Industrialists? These bankers are acting like bloody street dogs who are eating the bread of the society and barking and biting back the society. Was it not the duty of Bankers to ensure that the loans were granted to the companies which are financially disciplined? The 12 defaulters listed by the government to undergo new IBC code have defaulted to the extent of 1.78 Lakh Crores. In short only 12 companies with these Banker’s help have managed to fool the economy by 1.78 Lakh Crores.

The government of India is instead of punishing these bankers, supporting them. This government is also promoting it’s governance of the country by the performance of the stock market. How many Indians are actually benefitted by this performance of the stock market? While economy is slowed down, let’s think of people who have invested money in mutual funds where so called professional managers are managing the public money. The NIFTY has moved 2500 points up from 7000 in Feb 2016 to 9500 on today’s date? i.e. 35.71% return on the people who invested in the Index in Feb 2016. How many Mutual Funds Schemes have actually provided return = 35%. It is the best way to measure the performance of one’s Mutual Funds investment. If not 35%, how many Mutual Funds have provided return of at least 25% during the last year or two years for that matter? If not, poor and simple people of this nation are getting dragged in the so called financial bubble in the economy. Once again I would like to re-iterate that the People of India should really save their money which are not accessible to the corrupt bankers or the financial service providers such as mutual funds. ( You can read my article http://gappaa.blogspot.in/2017/06/protect-your-savings-deposit-in-post_15.html).

Also read my article about unethical practices in the Indian Stock market. How, the so called sharks are making money by looting Indian Traders and Investors. http://gappaa.blogspot.in/2017/06/immoral-and-probably-unlawful-practices.html

Protect Your Savings, Deposit In Post Office Savings Account, Punish Indian Banks!!!

The picture of Indian Economy portrayed in Media be it News Papers, You Tube, New Channels on TV, Stock Market is all rosy, green and promising. But the underlying facts shows it to be shockingly different. My previous article published on 08^th of Jun on this same blog shows how the Quarterly growth in the GDP of this country has been negative since the 2^nd quarter of the 2016 calendar year. The GDP growth has actually been slowed down. Despite good monsoon last year the profit numbers of the most Indian companies are not as predicted by the stock market. Private sector investment is shrinking. Public sector undertakings need government support. Indian Banks have accumulated huge NPAs (i.e. Non Performing Assets) on their balance sheets. Credit growth in the economy has been slowed down. Interest rates are going down. In the latest RBI Monetary Policy announcement happened on 5^th of June although RBI Monetary Policy Committee did not reduce the interest rate; it indicated that although RBI has paused the rate cut, it has not ruled out the option of cutting rates further. It is a clear sign that our Indian Economy has been slowed down and requires a boost from the central bank to keep it going further without causing many disruptions in the next two years of Modi Government. The BJP government cannot afford to expose the weakening economy with the elections not very far. Although it is very tough for any government to change the course of accelerated falling economy, Modi government tried to lift it to the height of prosperity. Undeniably Modi government did lift the pace of the economic growth to the height of prosperity, however the force of gravity has been acting stronger to pull the economy down more and more with every passing quarter.

Modi government did the best it could to save the Indian Banks, by bringing in more cash in to the banking system. However, the question one must ask to oneself and to the government is how it is going to use it further with the shrinking demand for the credit, and accumulated NPAs on the banks balance sheets. These Indian Banks follow so much documents and stricter norms while processing a loan request of a common man. The man, who is regular in paying taxes, working hard to earn the bread and butter for his family. Well, following the stricter norms while giving away any loan is not only mandatory but a social responsibility of the banks since they are lending the depositor’s money. Then one does not understand how these banks and the responsible banking personnel could be so negligent in granting business loans??? And be it because of demonetization or not the size of NPAs on banks’ balance sheet has been increasing. With the credit contraction in the economy and increased deposit base of the people Banks will have to bare more load on giving interest to depositors. With the past history in mind banks would try to build poor loan/assets portfolio to generate income. Of course, these activities in the slowing down economy is not worth taking a risk. That is what happened in Credit crisis in the USA in 2007-08. However, that credit bubble had started growing up long time before, i.e. since 1998-1999.

Another strong reason I believe is in favor of me opening post-office account for most of my savings is first of all post-office does not give loan by itself like those corrupt bankers and definitely not to corporates. So first of all we would bring chances to minimum for our money being mis-applied for the benefit of few corrupt people in the society/ nation. Second, we are keeping our money close to the government where the chances of default are minimum to pay back our deposits anytime we need. And even if case by devil’s act (opposite to God’s act) the ruling Government can always print the money needed for the benefit of large public; like it does for any Public Sector Undertaking. Then it does not matter which party is ruling, be it BJP or Congress.

In such scenario, as a saving account holder I would like to open an account in the Indian Post Office Savings scheme, where the minimum required balance is Rs. 50/- only for an account without cheque book & with cheque book Rs. 500 i.e.  very much less than the current limits prescribed by private banks as well as public banks.  One would also get cheque book, ATM card and online banking facility. 

Apart from Saving Accounts, Indian Post office provides many other financial services, especially to generate public’s saving which could be used by the government for the nation’s development activity. Also I feel it’s the most secured place in the country to safeguard one’s savings.

For more options about various Post Office saving schemes one may visit the following link.

https://www.indiapost.gov.in/Financial/Pages/Content/Savings-Account.aspx

Click on the images below to enlarge

Immoral and probably unlawful practices in Indian Stock Market? Should SEBI probe and investigate for the possibility of INSIDERS TRADING?

Stocks discussed here are Aurobindo Pharma (ISIN: INE406A01037) and Escorts (ISIN: INE042A01014)

One of my friends who does full-time stock trading, just placed his number on the network somewhere in the mid-April 2017, that he is looking for an advisory services. He received many calls from the firms located in Indore (MP) and Rajkot (Gujarat) while he is residing in Bangalore. Initially calls he received were about annual fees ranging from Rs. 30,000 – Rs. 50,000. He shared with me that these fees sound to be more than normal market charges. He started asking for profit sharing option whereby instead of paying annual fees and receiving no service or sub-standard service; he thought it would be wise to share his profit with the advisor. That way even advisor would be more interested to make more profit for his client. But then here there was a catch. Some people started asking him to open an account with them with the offer that de-mat account would be provided for free of cost and there would not be any annual charges. Also that advisory firm would manage trading also on my friend’s behalf. That means entrusting one’s hard earned money to someone who is staying so remote that it would be virtually impossible to hold that advisor to be responsible for the loss of money. Some firms were even went ahead to promise 100% positive return on every trade/ transaction. My friend chose not to trust these calls and kept running his business on his own independently without any outside help.

Modus Operandi:
By the 2^nd week of May my friend started receiving calls from some firms in Rajkot offering advice for free. At least they claimed these to be free. And showed interest to have a long term partnership. These calls were mainly to buy a lot/ multiple lots in ‘FUTURES’ market segment of ‘ESCORTS’ and the ‘AUROBINDO PHARMA’.  These callers used to enquire about his capital and accordingly used to ask him to multiply his lots. What is most important is whenever my friend asked them about the Target and the Stop Loss, these callers would simply say just buy and hold the position. Ridiculous!!! Isn’t it? Another most important fact is that, these callers would ask him, which broker he is having an account with. And further these callers would ask him to call them back once the long position is bought in these stocks. If both of us are not wrong, it gave us a picture that these callers were having a tie up with various brokers all over the country to confirm the position bought and sold by their trapped clients (i.e. their victims). It also gave us an impression that these so called advisors would be earning commission based on the turnover they generated through various clients.

A BIG NETWORK OF SHARKS!!!

TO EAT AWAY MONEY OF INNOCENT PEOPLE BY INDUCING THEM TO TRADE IN CERTAIN STOCKS IN A CERTAIN POSITION.

Why would these callers never induced anyone to buy shares instead suggested only a lot of Futures?
Naturally, one lot of futures means more turnover with less capital.

Now, one would like to take a look at what happened to the prices of these stocks.

With long positions accumulated from various people all over the nation, sharks were ready to take the market down to eat away people’s money.

During 8^th of May to 12^th of May the price of Escorts rose from Rs. 602.60 to Rs. 655.90
Whereas the price of Aurobindo Pharma went from Rs. 604.65 to Rs. 614.50

By 23^rd May Escorts hit the lowest price of Rs. 595.65 in the last 30-35 days period.
Whereas Aurobindo Pharma hit the lowest price of Rs. 512.40 in the last 30-35 days period.

Can one imagine how for much money those people who had built long positions in these stocks based on those calls from con advisors, might have been robbed for? Humongous!!!

Then both stocks recovered significantly by 30^th of May to celebrate 3 years of Modi Government.
Huh!!! Celebration of Modi Government by the stock market at the cost of people’s money robbed by cons. What a pity!!!!

***I would also like to add one more thing, the most people who had taken long position while stock prices plunged, might have tried to build short position to recover the lost money. And while stock prices bounce back on 30^th of May to celebrate 3 years of Modi Government. Money churned? Two times humongous!!!

I’m not sure if this article is worth for SEBI (Securities Exchange Board of India) to initiate any probe into such operations in the interest of general public to promote more retail investment and the healthy operations in the stock market, or if SEBI is waiting to receive complaint in writing from those people who have been looted.

Whatever the case is, I would like to hereby appeal to the General Public and the Retail Investors in India to withdraw their investments from the Stock Market or Mutual Funds, for market is too boiled up, while underlying economic picture is not very promising!!!

Pictures below are Line charts extracted from the most popular website: www.moneycontrol.com

(Please click on the picture to have enlarged view)

ESCORTS

AUROBINDO PHARMA